Mortgage Rates Expected Above 6% Through 2028 Amid Economic Challenges

Mortgage rates in the U.S. are forecasted to remain elevated, staying between 6% and 6.5% through at least 2028, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and its Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni. This persistence of high rates is attributed to growing federal deficits and inflation expectations, which will keep long-term rates from declining despite potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. While some organizations like Fannie Mae anticipate mortgage rates dipping below 6% by late 2026, the overall outlook remains challenging for affordability, contributing to sluggish home sales and high borrowing costs. Nevertheless, September 2025 data showed renewed strength in home sales, with a 1.5% increase from August and a 4.1% rise year-over-year, driven in part by declining mortgage rates from summer peaks. Regional variations affect sales trends and affordability, with the South and Northeast showing more robust activity compared to the Midwest. Some borrowers are accessing rates below 6% through mortgage buydown strategies, but the high costs of such loans continue to limit broad market improvements and maintain pressure on housing affordability.