Yellen Warns U.S. Recession Risk Rises from Trump's Tariffs

Janet Yellen, former Federal Reserve chair and Treasury Secretary, has warned that the risk of a U.S. recession has significantly increased following Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on major trading partners, which have disrupted financial markets, consumers, and businesses. Yellen emphasized that these tariffs could have 'tremendously adverse' effects, particularly on sectors reliant on critical minerals from China, and could impede the U.S. clean energy industry. Recent data showed a 0.3% contraction in U.S. GDP for the first quarter, attributed in part to a surge in imports as companies stockpiled goods ahead of the tariffs. While Trump has paused some tariffs, substantial levies on Chinese goods remain, drawing concern from investors and economists about the broader economic impact. Stock markets reacted negatively to the tariff announcements, and a global investor survey identified tariffs as the greatest negative risk to the U.S. economy, with additional concerns about undermining international cooperation and Federal Reserve independence. JPMorgan analysts estimate a 60% chance of a U.S. recession, though they expect it to be milder than previous downturns.