US CPI Up 3%; Delayed BLS Report

A delayed BLS report showed U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% month‑over‑month and 3.0% year‑over‑year in September, with core CPI also at 3.0%. A 4.1% jump in gasoline was the largest monthly contributor, shelter rose 0.2% — its smallest increase since early 2021 — and food increased about 0.2%. Tariffs are beginning to pass through to prices for apparel, furniture and appliances, and some forecasters warn continued monthly gains could push annual inflation toward about 4% by year‑end. The report was produced after a nine‑day delay during the government shutdown when key BLS staff were recalled; it underpins next year’s Social Security COLA (roughly 2.8%) and raises the prospect that October’s CPI release could be missed. Because the print came in slightly below forecasts, markets and policymakers see about a 25‑basis‑point Federal Reserve rate cut next week as likely, though analysts note consumers remain squeezed by food and gasoline costs.