OPEC+ Plans Accelerated Oil Output Increases Amid Non-Compliance

OPEC+ is accelerating oil output hikes and could fully unwind 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary production cuts by October or November if member nations do not improve compliance with their assigned quotas. The initiative, primarily led by Saudi Arabia, follows a surprise decision in April to increase output more quickly despite weak oil prices and demand, aiming to address persistent quota violations by countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan. Nearly one million barrels per day are set to be added across April, May, and June, with a further 411,000 barrels per day likely in July, and additional increases possible through October. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly warned non-compliant members that continued overproduction may lead to the full removal of remaining voluntary cuts, which were originally planned to last until late 2026. The group’s actions are expected to put downward pressure on oil prices, potentially impacting oil-dependent economies, including Russia, and influencing global markets. Analysts note that a failure to achieve better compliance could result in significant market volatility as OPEC+ adapts its strategy in response.