New Jersey, Virginia Gubernatorial Races Lean Democratic

Democrats are currently favored to win the 2025 gubernatorial elections in both New Jersey and Virginia, with multiple election analysts rating both races as 'leans Democratic.' In Virginia, the contest is set between Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, marking the state's first female governor regardless of outcome; analysts consider this race a firmer Democratic lean due to established candidates and recent Democratic enthusiasm. In New Jersey, the Democratic primary remains highly competitive, with Rep. Mikie Sherrill holding only a slight lead among a strong field, reflecting significant voter indecision ahead of the June 10 primary. Despite New Jersey's Democratic dominance in recent decades, Republicans maintain optimism due to closer margins in recent statewide contests. Analysts note that while Democrats should win both states based on current trends and historical performance, uncertainties remain, particularly in New Jersey where the field is less settled. The political environment, including recent national shifts and economic factors, could still influence outcomes in both states.