Russian Elite Maneuver Power Transition Amid Putin's Position Uncertainty

Amid ongoing tensions and speculation, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has circulated reports suggesting deteriorating health of China's leader Xi Jinping to accelerate Russia's own power transition, aiming to exploit perceived political instability in Beijing. This disinformation effort appears targeted at Russian internal decision-makers and possibly the U.S., to influence political actions and negotiations, including those related to Ukraine. Meanwhile, talks for a potential in-person summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin were put on hold, reflecting Moscow's opposition to an immediate Ukraine ceasefire and contributing to diplomatic uncertainty. Analysts highlight Russia's declining geopolitical power, with some predicting the Putin regime is nearing collapse due to the protracted war in Ukraine and shrinking influence, while internal Russian elites are reportedly preparing for a power struggle amid this instability. Concurrently, Putin has intensified provocations against NATO and European countries through airspace incursions and suspected sabotage, testing the West's resolve and complicating the regional security landscape. These developments together underscore a volatile period marked by power jockeying within Russia, strained international relations, and heightened security concerns in Europe.