Wall Street Bonuses Fall as Economic Uncertainty Grows

Wall Street bonuses are projected to decline this year across most sectors, reversing the gains seen in 2024 amid mounting economic uncertainty from U.S. trade wars and geopolitical tensions. Investment bankers, particularly those in M&A and equity underwriting, could see bonuses fall by up to 20% due to slowed dealmaking following recent tariff announcements. Traditional asset management and hedge fund professionals expect bonus reductions of 5% to 10%, while private equity bonuses at larger firms may remain flat or decline slightly, with smaller and midsize firms facing steeper cuts. In contrast, equity and fixed income traders may see bonus increases of up to 25% thanks to market volatility. The overall bonus outlook remains highly uncertain, and experts warn that pay could face further downward pressure without clarity on tariffs and global tensions. Cautious corporate behavior and diminished deal activity continue to shape Wall Street compensation trends.