China Permits 257M Ton Crude Oil Imports in 2026 Amid Demand Uncertainty

China has set its non-state crude oil import quota for 2026 at 257 million metric tons, unchanged from 2025, signaling expectations of weak domestic demand or sufficient existing stockpiles. Refinery processing rates in China have increased, reducing crude oil availability for storage and driving down the average crude surplus to 570,000 barrels per day in September, the lowest since the start of the year. Despite a drop in crude imports to 11.5 million barrels per day in September, China continues to expand storage capacity with plans for 11 new facilities over the next two years. Imports from Russia remain significant, accounting for over 2.1 million barrels per day, while imports from Malaysia and Saudi Arabia saw declines in September; notably, U.S. imports remained absent for the fourth consecutive month. These dynamics reflect China's strategic balancing of crude supply amid fluctuating global prices and geopolitical tensions.