Prop 50 Likely to Shift California Seats to Democrats

Recent polling shows Proposition 50 poised to pass on the Nov. 4 ballot, with an Emerson College poll finding 57% support (other polls in the mid-50s to low-60s) — up from about 48% in August — signaling increased likelihood of approval. If approved, the measure would redistrict California’s 52 congressional seats and is projected to create roughly five additional Democratic U.S. House seats. The plan would shift Chino Hills into Democratic Rep. Norma Torres’s District 35, removing Republican Rep. Young Kim’s representation there and altering her district toward Riverside and Orange counties. In Northern California, Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley’s District 3 could lose parts of Roseville and Rocklin and pick up areas around Sacramento. Supporters, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, frame the measure as a response to Republican mid‑decade maps in states like Texas, while critics say it discards the Citizens Redistricting Commission’s work; Republican-backed opposition groups have about $2.3 million combined, limiting their late advertising ability.