Expected Job Growth Slows Amid Trade Uncertainty

U.S. stock markets experienced a notable rebound, with the S&P 500 logging seven consecutive days of gains, its longest winning streak since September, despite underlying volatility concerns indicated by an inverted VIX futures curve—a rare disconnect suggesting traders remain cautious even as prices rise. This volatility was set against a backdrop of broader economic uncertainty, as the government’s latest jobs report showed steady unemployment but forecasts a possible slowdown in labor market growth due to the Trump administration’s new tariffs and global trade tensions. Major companies like General Motors and UPS have withdrawn their annual forecasts, citing uncertainty over trade policy, while economists predict that increased tariffs and volatility may further dampen job growth in coming months. April also saw dramatic swings in federal retirement account (TSP) returns, reflecting the market's turbulence after an initial tariff-driven drop and subsequent recovery. Meanwhile, market surprises continued with companies like Meta and Microsoft posting strong earnings, propelling tech and semiconductor stocks higher, even as others like Qualcomm and McDonald’s faced challenges, underscoring the unpredictable environment. Investors are advised to take a long-term perspective to weather ongoing volatility, as both economic and market signals remain mixed.